‘Weather prophet’ was often cited — and sometimes accurate

Weather Prophet Brady was an often quoted, though not always respected, 19th century weather predictor in the Glens Falls area.

The Morning Star of Glens Falls described his forecast for the upcoming days in its Aug. 3, 1895 issue:
“’You may say it’s going to rain on Aug. 4,’ said Weather Prophet Brady last night as he entered The Star editorial rooms. ‘That’s Sunday,’ he continued. ‘On August 12, it’ll rain again, and there’ll be warm weather between. On August 19 there’ll be good shower, and it’ll rain again. That’s enough, ain’t it? We’ll see if it’ll come true. I got it right before.’”

For the record, Brady was correct on at least one of his predictions in this report.
“The rainfall yesterday morning was nearly three-quarters of an inch,” The Morning Star reported on Aug. 13. The newspaper didn’t report how the weather turned out on Aug. 4 or Aug. 19.
Brady, a “jolly son of Erin,” was a veteran Navy seaman who was sexton at St. Mary’s Roman Catholic Church in Glens Falls.

The Morning Star began reporting his predictions as early as 1887.
“Weather Prophet Brady’s most recent prediction is to the effect that the snow now on the ground will disappear before Christmas,” the newspaper reported on Dec. 21 of that year. “He stakes his reputation as a prophet on this assertion, and advises all to take their holiday sleigh rides at once.”

The prophet’s prediction of a white Christmas in 1894 was optimistic.
“Weather Prophet Brady says a heavy snow storm will be due on Dec. 20 instead of Dec. 28,” The Morning Star reported on Oct. 2. “The reputation of Prophet Brady is at stake in this matter, and it is well to have the dates definitely fixed.”

The Star reported Brady’s predictions through at least 1899.
“Weather Prophet Brady has left a copy of his latest forecast at the office,” the paper reported on Jan. 13 of that year. “He says there will be rain or snow on January 17, and snow on January 27. The weather will be extremely cold until March 20.”

Brady’s expertise was not in meteorology as we know it today, but in studying almanacs and historic records to determine cyclical weather patterns over time. Today’s meteorology was influenced by the advance of modern physics in the early 20th century and the development of computer technology in the late 20th century.

“Brady alleges that his rules for foretelling the weather were learned at sea and are bound to prove true every time,” The Morning Star reported on Oct. 29, 1887.

The local weather forecaster and the newspaper generally had an amicable relationship.
“Prophet Brady is not always amiss in his predictions. His injunction to look out for cold weather was timely,” the Star reported on Aug. 1.

But on at least one occasion, John Brady attempted to freeze out, pun intended, the Glens Falls morning daily from receiving his weather reports, perhaps because he had become tired of frequently being the brunt of editorial humor.

“John Brady, the well-known weather prophet, says we are going to have a very hard winter,” The Morning Star reported on Oct. 10, 1890. “The early portion will be most severe, and during November and December we are to have much snow. Mr. Brady would not give a newspaper man his predictions, so at considerable expense, The Star secured the services of a special commissioner to obtain definite information of what the winter had in store for us, believing that the interest felt in the matter would justify the expense.”

Another time, The Morning Star defended the forecaster’s dignity after a scathing rebuke from The Saratogian.

“Today’s weather will not add anything to the professional veracity of Weather Prophet Brady,” The Saratogian wrote in an editorial republished in The Morning Star on June 15, 1895. “He had predicted a frost, but the blight had not made its appearance up to the hour of going to press, and it is very doubtful if the chill will arrive on Prognosticator Brady’s schedule.
The Morning Star was more soothing in its own commentary.

“An inherent pride in local institutions, and a regard for the reputation of our weather prophet in particular, makes it extraordinarily painful to admit that Mr. Brady has struck the wrong chord,” the paper wrote. “A due regard for the veracity, however, leaves no alternative. Prophet Brady may be able to produce some reasonable excuse for the defect in his forecast.”

Another time, The Morning Star recommended taking Brady’s predictions with “a liberal dose of allowance,” based on his record.

“Our local weather prophet John Brady tells a Star man that the prospects are bright for the street railway company this coming winter. There will be but very little snow, and the company will not find it necessary to resort to sleighs,” the Star reported on Oct. 18, 1888. “If Prophet Brady’s prognostication proves correct, the street railway company will indeed have occasion for thankfulness. But Prophet Brady fell into bad repute because of the failure of his predictions last winter. … His case may turn out to be another instance of the ‘prophet without honor in his own country.’”

Regardless of his reputation for accuracy around Glens Falls, Brady was regarded highly in northern Warren County.

“A local weather prophet of Glens Falls, John Brady by name, is making fame by wonderfully correct and frequent predictions,” The Warrensburg News reported in an article republished Oct. 18, 1888, in The Morning Star. “He foretold the last snow exactly, even so far as to say that it would be followed by rain, and now declares that we are to have an open winter. Mr. Days of Johnsburg predicted just the same way. It’s a cold day when the northern towns of Warren County allow Glens Falls to get ahead of them.”

Brady also was respected outside Warren County, with his forecasts reported, without commentary, in newspapers in Washington, Essex, Clinton, St. Lawrence and Franklin counties.
“Weather Prophet Brady of Glens Falls is prophesying again,” The Granville Sentinel reported on Oct. 18, 1890. “He now predicts an exceedingly hard winter. The early portion will be most severe. During the months of November and December we are to have much snow.”

 

Maury Thompson was a reporter for The Post-Star of Glens Falls for 21 years before retiring in 2017. He now is a freelance writer focusing on the history of politics, labor and media in the region.